A mere eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
